OpenFields

904: Impact of Vision for CAP on UK Agriculture

This paper summarises the executive summary of ‘Impact of HM Treasury/Defra’s Vision for the Common Agricultural Policy on Agriculture in the UK’ a FAPRI-UK Project by Joan Moss, Myles Patton, Lichun Zhang and In Seck Kim (Queen’s University Belfast & AgriFood & Biosciences Institute) and Julian Binfield and Patrick Westhoff (FAPRI, University of Missouri)

Year of Publication2009

The CAP Health Check changes are predicted to depress UK milk prices but to have little effect on beef, sheep meat, pig, poultry and crop prices. The Doha Reforms would also push milk, beef, pig, and poultry prices down but would reduce sheep production to a degree where sheep numbers in the EU would fall and prices would rise. There would be little impact on the crop sector. Further liberalisation would slightly increase milk prices and drive beef, sheep, pig and poultry prices down but would not have much effect on the crop sector. Ending the Single Farm Payment would increase milk prices slightly, reduce beef and sheep numbers significantly but would have a negligible impact on the pig, poultry and crop sectors.

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